Matt Drudge, conservative news aggregator and the creator of the influential “Drudge Report,” has made a prediction for the November congressional elections that no conservative will enjoy hearing: Republicans will lose big — disastrously big.
Drudge claims similarities between the approval ratings of President Trump and former President Obama could signal an upcoming, massive defeat. Drudge reminded that Obama had a 47 percent approval rating ahead of facing his first midterm election in September 2010. This is the same approval rating President Trump has ahead of his first midterm. If history were to repeat itself, Trump and Republicans could lose 60 seats, Drudge said in his prediction.
“Trump and Obama both have 47% approval at this time of presidency, according to Rasmussen. Trump will also lose 60 seats in the House like Obama did during first midterm!” Drudge said in a tweet, before cryptically adding: “Unless…”
It is unclear what Drudge was signaling at the end of his tweet but one can assume he means there is something Trump and Republicans can do to better the result; that is, to stop the impending political rift.
Polling group FiveThirtyEight similarly predicts Democrats have between a 74.1-82.9 percent chance to win a majority in the House of Representatives. According to the report, Democrats have an 80 percent chance to gain 18 to 61 seats. Similarly, the report shows there is only a 10 percent chance Democrats gain fewer than 18 seats (this result reflects the most seats Democrats could win and still not win the majority).
Here’s more on Drudge’s prediction and the upcoming election from the Hill:
Drudge’s tweet comes less than two months before the midterm elections.
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Democrats are eyeing the midterms as a chance to retake the lower chamber of Congress. The party needs to flip at least 23 seats to win back control of the House, something political handicappers say is likely to happen.
Democrats have a 14-point lead over Republicans on the generic House ballot, according to a poll released Wednesday by Quinnipiac University. And the party holds a roughly 8-point lead over Republicans in a RealClearPolitics average of generic congressional voting surveys.
Obama won the presidency in 2008, but Republicans won back the House majority in the 2010 midterms.
It should be noted that these same statistics and approval polls were pushed ahead of the 2016 presidential election where Trump faced off against Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton. Then, she was nearly destined to win and triumphed in virtually every poll. Trump went on to dominate the election by winning 304 electoral votes to Clinton’s 227.
Several people who responded to Drudge saw the Republican chances more optimistically:
— Nicki Scroggin (@NickiScroggin) September 14, 2018
On the subject of the trumpeted “blue wave” predictions :
Since 2016, what fundamentally changed to discourage Trump voters & diminish that support?
My answer : nothing (midterm turnout deficit,.. maybe)
The left’s derangement is apocalyptic but that’s another issue entirely. pic.twitter.com/BvffZlCgpu
— Charles Hodge (@94c2500) September 14, 2018
— H. A. Goodman TRUMP 2020 (@HAGOODMANAUTHOR) September 14, 2018
I have a feeling there are a lot of closet Trump supporters out there that are afraid to let that information out in mixed company. Let’s face it …is a dangerous thing to support Trump right now so who is going to admit it to their liberal friends?
— Kimber Cece (@kimblueyes) September 14, 2018
I don’t think will lose the house
— Arktvlr (@arktvlr) September 14, 2018