Former Vice President Joe Biden has a 19 percent chance to drop out before the South Carolina primary according to top political polling site FiveThirtyEight.
The page’s Editor-in-Chief Nate Silver took to Twitter to share his page’s most recent estimates of which candidates are most likely to drop before the next primary election on February 29.
“To be more precise, here are the chances are [sic] model estimates of each candidate dropping out *before* South Carolina,” Silver tweeted, listing Biden at the top. The former vice president finished Iowa in fourth place, a surprisingly low mark compared to pre-election polling. He also dropped to fifth place in New Hampshire, another state in which he was polling well.
Third on the list was Senator Elizabeth Warren, at 17 percent, who finished third place in Iowa and fourth place in New Hampshire.
Billionaire Tom Steyer came next, with a 15 percent chance he would drop within the next two weeks according to the FiveThirtyEight model.
Amy Klobuchar, who got third in the New Hampshire primary behind Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg, had an 11 percent to drop from the race.
Check it out:
Empirically, a key factor in whether someone drops out is whether they're rising or falling in polls. So someone who's still decently high but falling (e.g. Biden) is more likely to drop out than someone who is low bit rising slightly (e.g. Klobuchar).
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) February 14, 2020
Despite the model, Joe Biden has signaled he is looking to remain in the primary process for some time and has even predicted a first or second place in Nevada.
The Washington Examiner reports:
During a Thursday afternoon fundraiser in New York City, Biden told donors at Sarabeth’s restaurant in midtown Manhattan that he believed he could finish first or second in Nevada’s Feb. 22 caucuses, according to a pool report.
The former vice president also considered a win in reach in South Carolina’s Feb. 29 primary, adding that “things look good” ahead of Super Tuesday on March 3, when 14 states weigh in on the 2020 Democratic race for the White House.
Biden took his winning predictions even further, looking down the road to several critical states: “I will win Pennsylvania, I promise you. I will win Michigan, I promise you. I will win those Midwest states, as well as right now they have me winning in Georgia, Texas, Florida, North Carolina. In terms of the nomination and even the general election only a point behind Trump in, in Texas.”
Biden’s supporters and donors do not necessarily share his optimism, with one mega-donor claiming Biden must win South Carolina in order for him to continue donating to his campaign.
“Everybody’s sticking with Joe until they see what happens there,” venture capitalist Alan Patricof said, also per the Washington Examiner.
If not Biden, then who? Michael Bloomberg, Patricof said.
“The kind of people who would be supportive to Mike are the same people who would be supportive to Biden, I believe,” he added. “In the end, the voters are what counts.”
Here’s how some people reacted to the predictive poll:
Nate I love you and I'm usually on your side, but any model that predicts that Biden is going to drop out before the state that he has staked his entire campaign on is crazy.
— Mick Williams (@MickLWilliams) February 14, 2020
Biden isn't going to drop before his best early state.
— Tom Taylor (@TomForUtah) February 14, 2020
If Biden loses SC by even a fraction of a percent he will drop out
— The Progressive Psychonaut ☮️ (@ThatRealProgre1) February 15, 2020
Biden out before SC would be a game changer. Appreciate his decades of service but the way he can help the most now is stepping aside and allowing support to coalesce around more viable candidates.
— Darmy Moosh (@DarmyMoosh) February 14, 2020
You've gotten to the point you may be affecting primary results. Stop!
— ⚖️Laura H. (@LauraKY06) February 14, 2020
This is just silly Nate.
— Thomas Paine ✊ (@TomPaineToday) February 14, 2020
Note: The author of this article has included commentary that expresses an opinion and analysis of the facts.