Data Expert: Actual COVID-19 Numbers Much Lower Than Projections

The United States has more than 145,000 confirmed cases of the coronavirus, leading the world in that category (excluding data from China).

And, the U.S. accounts for more than 2,600 of the world’s 35,000 COVID-19 deaths.

So, how bad is the coronavirus in the U.S.?

And, perhaps more importantly, how bad will it?

Answers to both of those questions are unclear.

What is known about the COVID-19 is it is spreading and worsening, but data experts are having to resort to uncertain data to forecast projections.

Some of these projections, however, are not matching up with real-time results, according to data expert Justin Hart.

Hart is a senior executive and chief digital strategist with more than 20 years of experience working with Fortune 500 companies, start-ups, and political campaigns, according to his own biography.

In a series of tweets, Hart examined 2 – 3 day COVID-19 Health Data projections then compared the actual numbers once that data was collected. He also examined a break-down of state-by-state statistics alongside their respective projections.

In an initial tweet, Hart explained COVID-19 Health Data projections showed New York needed 20,000 to 40,000 hospital beds to accommodate coronavirus victims. The number of actual beds they needed was 12,000.

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Hart also made comparisons in Louisiana beds and ventilators.

The number of projected beds needed in the state were between 2,930 to 5,508 beds. The number of actual beds they needed ended up needing was 1,127.

Similarly, the projected number of ventilators needed was between 419 and 907. The actual figure was again lower than the lowest projection: 380.

Take a look at his comparisons:

Hart then shared data from Georgia and Connecticut:

Polling expert Nate Silver commented on the differences in a tweet of his own, saying there is a difference in using uncertain data to make projections and not getting the data right when it is clear.

Silver also attributed projections not being necessarily accurate to a lag in data collection.

He also described the number of projected deaths in the U.S. as neither the “best case” scenario nor the “worst case” scenario, but in-between.