New Election Model Says ‘No One’ Most Likely To Win Democratic Primary

The Democratic presidential primary may have no winner, according to the latest election model from FiveThirtyEight.

The most likely outcome for the presidential primary is that no one candidate gets enough pledged delegates by the Democratic convention to win the nomination.

From the Western Journal:

One of its models gives odds for the candidates getting more than 50 percent of the pledged delegates — the amount needed for nomination. The projection fluctuates over time with the performance of the candidates.

And the winner in the latest version is: No One.

That’s right. The latest projection puts the odds on no one getting above 50 percent level at two in five.

One major issue affecting the outcome is the fact that multiple candidates are still in the running and are still remaining competitive. This is causing a splintering of the final delegate vote count according to political strategist Addisu Demissie.

“What it really comes down to is the number of candidates splintering the vote,” Demissie told NBC News. “If this number of candidates sticks around and through Super Tuesday and March 10, it just becomes almost a mathematical certainty that no one can claim a majority of delegates by July. It’s just math.”

“This thing is about to pile on us so quickly. So the field just has to narrow or the math is against any candidate to win on the first ballot,” he added.

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Demissie predicted that more candidates will drop before the Democratic convention, especially after Super Tuesday on March 3, but it may not change the split outcome.

“The most likely scenario is you have a bunch of people dropping out on March 4, but that may already be too late,” he claimed.

Here’s more, from the Western Journal:

Among the real people running, the FiveThirtyEight model says that Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont has the best odds, at one in three.

Former Vice President Joe Biden has the next-best odds at one in eight. Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg has a one-in-12 shot of winning a majority of pledged delegates, according to the model.

The model projects that although 1,990 delegates are needed, Sanders will get no more than 1,521, while Biden will net 815 and Bloomberg will snare 786. Other candidates in the race will have even small chunks of the delegate pie, the model predicts.

If the projection holds true, Democrats would be heading for what is called a brokered convention.


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